你好，思维小侦探！——认知偏差大冒险启程

你有没有过这样的经历？放学回家，妈妈让你从冰箱里选一种水果：要么是红彤彤、酸酸甜甜的草莓，要么是带着小包装、看起来特别精致的蓝莓。你本来想拿草莓，可眼睛一瞟，看见蓝莓的包装盒上画着一只超可爱的小恐龙贴纸，鬼使神差就把蓝莓拿了出来。回家尝了一口，才发现爸爸早上买的草莓其实更甜，你忍不住挠挠头：“我刚才为什么会选蓝莓呀？” 或者周末和爸爸去书店挑动画片，你本来想看攒了好久的《小马宝莉》最新季，可一眼看见《奥特曼》的封面上画着从来没见过的红色怪兽，立刻就把《小马宝莉》放到一边，抱着《奥特曼》回了家。看了10分钟，你越看越觉得没意思，还是想看你最喜欢的小马紫悦，忍不住问自己：“我是不是被大脑骗了？” 还有一次，你和妈妈去文具店买笔记本，本来想买蓝色的横线本，因为老师说横线本写作业最工整。可你一眼看见粉色的笔记本封面上画着你最爱的Hello Kitty，立刻就拿在手里不肯放。回家写作业的时候才发现，蓝色的本子纸张更厚，擦铅笔字的时候不会把纸擦破，你有点后悔：“早知道我就买蓝色的了。” These little things happen all the time, right? You didn’t do anything wrong, you didn’t make a stupid mistake, it’s just that your brain has some “little habits” that like to play pranks on you quietly. 这些小事是不是每天都发生？你没有做错什么，也没有犯傻，只是你的大脑有一些“小习惯”，总喜欢悄悄跟你玩恶作剧。

你的大脑超级厉害，它每天要处理超过1000万条信息，要做上万个判断：要不要抬手拿草莓？要不要走那条上学的小路？要不要相信同学说的话？如果每个判断都要仔细想很久，你的大脑很快就会没电啦。所以它偷偷给自己开了“省电模式”，遇到熟悉的事情就直接走“捷径”，不用仔细想就做决定。大部分时候这个小习惯特别棒，能帮你节省很多力气，可有时候它也会“偷懒”过头，悄悄骗你，让你选错东西、误会别人，甚至说出让自己后悔的话。这种大脑偷偷犯的小错误，就叫做「认知偏差」（Cognitive Bias /ˌkɒɡnɪtɪv ˈbaɪəs/）。 ```mermaid graph LR A[遇到事情] --> B{大脑熟悉这件事吗？} B -->|是| C[走省电捷径，快速做决定] B -->|否| D[仔细分析，慢慢做决定] C --> E{是需要仔细考虑的重要

你有没有过这样的经历？放学回家，妈妈让你从冰箱里选一种水果：要么是红彤彤、酸酸甜甜的草莓，要么是带着小包装、看起来特别精致的蓝莓。你本来想拿草莓，可眼睛一瞟，看见蓝莓的包装盒上画着一只超可爱的小恐龙贴纸，鬼使神差就把蓝莓拿了出来。回家尝了一口，才发现爸爸早上买的草莓其实更甜，你忍不住挠挠头：“我刚才为什么会选蓝莓呀？” Have you ever had an experience like this? After school, your mom asks you to pick a fruit from the fridge: either bright red, sweet and sour strawberries, or blueberries in a fancy package with a cute little dinosaur sticker. You were going to grab the strawberries, but your eyes caught the dinosaur sticker on the blueberry box, and you found yourself picking the blueberries without thinking. When you got home and took a bite, you realized the strawberries your dad bought in the morning were actually sweeter. You scratch your head and ask yourself, “Why did I pick the blueberries just now?” 或者周末和爸爸去书店挑动画片，你本来想看攒了好久的《小马宝莉》最新季，可一眼看见《奥特曼》的封面上画着从来没见过的红色怪兽，立刻就把《小马宝莉》放到一边，抱着《奥特曼》回了家。看了10分钟，你越看越觉得没意思，还是想看你最喜欢的小马紫悦，忍不住问自己：“我是不是被大脑骗了？” Or on the weekend, you go to the bookstore with your dad to pick an animated series. You were going to watch the latest season of My Little Pony that you’ve been saving up for, but you spot a red monster you’ve never seen before on the Ultraman cover. You immediately put down My Little Pony and grab Ultraman. After watching 10 minutes, you find it boring and still want to watch your favorite Twilight Sparkle. You can’t help but ask yourself, “Did my brain trick me?” 还有一次，你和妈妈去文具店买笔记本，本来想买蓝色的横线本，因为老师说横线本写作业最工整。可你一眼看见粉色的笔记本封面上画着你最爱的Hello Kitty，立刻就拿在手里不肯放。回家写作业的时候才发现，蓝色的本子纸张更厚，擦铅笔字的时候不会把纸擦破，你有点后悔：“早知道我就买蓝色的了。” There was also a time when you went to the stationery store with your mom to buy a notebook. You were going to buy the blue lined notebook because your teacher said lined notebooks make your homework neatest. But the second you spot the pink notebook with your favorite Hello Kitty on the cover, you grab it and won’t let go. When you get home to do your homework, you find the blue notebook has thicker paper that doesn’t tear when you erase pencil marks. You feel a little regretful: “I should have bought the blue one.” These little things happen all the time, right? You didn’t do anything wrong, you didn’t make a stupid mistake, it’s just that your brain has some “little habits” that like to play pranks on you quietly. 这些小事是不是每天都发生？你没有做错什么，也没有犯傻，只是你的大脑有一些“小习惯”，总喜欢悄悄跟你玩恶作剧。

你的大脑超级厉害，它每天要处理超过1000万条信息，要做上万个判断：要不要抬手拿草莓？要不要走那条上学的小路？要不要相信同学说的话？如果每个判断都要仔细想很久，你的大脑很快就会没电啦。所以它偷偷给自己开了“省电模式（Power-Saving Mode /ˈpaʊə seɪvɪŋ məʊd/）”，遇到熟悉的事情就直接走“思维捷径（Mental Shortcut /ˈmentl ˈʃɔːtkʌt/）”，不用仔细想就做决定。大部分时候这个小习惯特别棒，能帮你节省很多力气：你过马路的时候看见车过来，不用想“我要不要躲开”，直接就闪到一边；你系鞋带的时候不用想“第一步要绕圈还是打结”，手自己就会系，这些都是思维捷径的好用处。 Your brain is super powerful. It processes over 10 million pieces of information and makes tens of thousands of judgments every day: Should I reach for the strawberries? Should I take the usual path to school? Should I believe what my classmate said? If it had to think carefully about every single judgment, your brain would run out of power super fast. So it quietly turns on its “power-saving mode”. When it encounters familiar things, it takes “mental shortcuts” and makes decisions without careful thinking. Most of the time, this little habit is amazing—it saves you a lot of effort. When you cross the road and see a car coming, you don’t have to think “Should I dodge?” You just move out of the way automatically. When you tie your shoes, you don’t have to think “Do I loop the lace first or tie a knot first?” Your hands just do it on their own. These are all great uses of mental shortcuts.

可有时候这个省电模式会“偷懒”过头：你选水果的时候被贴纸吸引，忘了要选甜的；挑动画片的时候被新怪兽吸引，忘了自己最爱的是小马宝莉；买文具的时候被Hello Kitty吸引，忘了要买耐用的。这种大脑偷偷犯的小错误，就叫做「认知偏差（Cognitive Bias /ˌkɒɡnɪtɪv ˈbaɪəs/）」。 But sometimes this power-saving mode gets “too lazy”: You pick the blueberries because of the sticker and forget you want the sweet one; you pick Ultraman because of the new monster and forget your favorite is My Little Pony; you grab the Hello Kitty notebook and forget you need a durable one. These little mistakes your brain makes quietly are called “cognitive biases”.

```mermaid graph LR A[遇到事情] --> B{大脑熟悉这件事吗？} B -->|是| C[走省电捷径，快速做决定] B -->|否| D[仔细分析，慢慢做决定] C --> E{是需要快速反应的紧急情况？} E -->|是| F[正确判断，比如过马路躲车] E -->|否| G[出现认知偏差，选错水果/动画片] D --> H[正确判断，比如做数学题] ``` 你看这张图：大脑走捷径的时候，遇到需要快速反应的紧急情况，比如过马路躲车，就会做出正确的判断，帮你躲开危险；可如果是不需要那么快做决定的小事，比如选水果、挑动画片，就很容易出现认知偏差，让你选到不符合自己真实想法的东西。就像你的小电动自行车，平时走平路开省电模式特别省力气，可遇到坑坑洼洼的路还开省电模式，就会摔跤。认知偏差就是那个坑坑洼洼的路，我们要学会识别它，绕开它。 Look at this diagram: When your brain takes a shortcut, if it’s an emergency that needs a quick reaction, like dodging a car when crossing the road, it makes the right judgment and helps you avoid danger. But if it’s a small thing that doesn’t need a quick decision, like picking fruit or choosing an animated series, it’s very easy to have a cognitive bias and pick something that doesn’t match what you really want. It’s like your little electric bike: it saves a lot of energy when you ride on flat roads with power-saving mode, but if you keep it on power-saving mode on bumpy roads, you’ll fall. Cognitive biases are those bumpy roads. We need to learn to recognize them and go around them.

你不是小笨瓜，大脑才是“小骗子”

很多小朋友发现自己选错了水果、看错了动画片，会觉得自己很笨：“我怎么这么傻，连自己喜欢什么都搞不清？” 大错特错！认知偏差不是笨不笨的问题，是所有人的大脑都会有的小习惯，哪怕是世界上最聪明的人，也会被认知偏差骗。 You’re not a silly kid, your brain is the “little liar”. Many kids feel stupid when they pick the wrong fruit or watch the wrong animated series: “Why am I so dumb? I can’t even figure out what I like?” That’s totally wrong! Cognitive biases have nothing to do with being smart or dumb. It’s a small habit that every person’s brain has. Even the smartest people in the world get tricked by cognitive biases.

有个超级厉害的爷爷心理学家，叫丹尼尔·卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman /ˈdænjəl ˈkɑːniːmæn/），他因为专门研究大脑的这些“小把戏”，拿到了诺贝尔经济学奖。他研究发现：人类每天做的2万多个判断里，有95%都是靠思维捷径完成的，只有5%的判断会让我们停下来仔细想。也就是说，你每天上学、吃饭、玩的时候，大部分决定都是大脑“自动驾驶”帮你做的，不是你自己慢慢想出来的。 There is a super amazing grandpa psychologist named Daniel Kahneman. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics for studying these “little tricks” of the brain. His research found that out of the more than 20,000 judgments humans make every day, 95% are completed by mental shortcuts, and only 5% of judgments make us stop and think carefully. That means most of your decisions when you go to school, eat, and play every day are made by your brain’s “autopilot”, not by you thinking slowly.

你可能会说：“大人不是都很聪明吗？他们也会被大脑骗吗？” 当然会啦！你看：妈妈去商场买衣服，本来只说买一件衬衫，结果看见“满300减100”的牌子，一激动买了3件，回家才发现有一件根本穿不上，这是大脑的“优惠偏差”，觉得打折就是赚了，忘了自己本来要什么；爸爸开车去奶奶家，明明知道前面修路，可跟着前面的车走，结果堵了半小时，这是大脑的“从众偏差”，觉得大家都走的路肯定是对的，忘了自己提前看的路况；甚至你的老师上课的时候，也会不小心把“苹果”说成“香蕉”，这是大脑的“记忆偏差”，因为昨天刚讲过香蕉的知识，大脑就走捷径说错了。 You might say: “Adults are all so smart, right? Do they get tricked by their brains too?” Of course! Look: Your mom goes to the mall to buy clothes, she only said she’d buy one shirt, but when she sees the sign that says “Spend 300, get 100 off”, she gets excited and buys 3 pieces. When she gets home, she finds one doesn’t fit