第一章 第一次逛Costco：为什么这家超市不靠卖货赚钱？| Chapter 1 First Trip to Costco: Why This Supermarket Doesn't Make Money from Selling Goods?

2019年夏，我落地洛杉矶国际机场的第三天，住在圣盖博的朋友非要拉着我去“体验一下美国最神奇的超市”。那之前我对美国超市的认知还停留在“牛奶比水便宜”的段子里，直到我推开Costco的玻璃门，闻到混合着烤热狗、芝士蛋糕和新鲜烤鸡的香气时，才知道什么叫“认知颠覆”。

卖场门口的自助热狗餐台前排着长队，我跟着人群拿了一份热狗、一份薯条、一杯印着Costco标志的碳酸饮料，结账的时候收银员报出了1.5美元的价格——换算成人民币还不到11块钱，比国内便利店一瓶3块钱的可乐还便宜。更离谱的是，往里走两排货架，我看到一台全新未拆封的65寸索尼4K电视，标价799美元，而同款我当时在国内查的售价是人民币5999元，折合美元超过800。再往里走是数码产品区，一台最新款的iPad标价99美元，比苹果官网的起售价便宜了整整300美元。我手里还攥着从国内带过来的转换插头，本来只是想买几瓶矿泉水，结果推车塞得满满当当，结账的时候总共花了不到200美元，抱着一堆比国内便宜一半以上的商品，我脑子里只有一个念头：Costco卖得这么便宜，到底怎么赚钱？

> In the summer of 2019, three days after I landed at Los Angeles International Airport, my friend who lived in San Gabriel insisted on taking me to "experience the most magical supermarket in the US". At that time, my perception of American supermarkets was still stuck in the meme that "milk is cheaper than water", until I pushed open the glass door of Costco and smelled the mix of grilled hot dogs, cheesecakes and fresh roasted chicken, I realized what a "cognitive subversion" is. > > There was a long line in front of the self-service hot dog counter at the entrance of the warehouse. I followed the crowd to get a hot dog, a portion of fries, and a cup of soda printed with the Costco logo. When the cashier reported the price of $1.5, I was shocked — that was less than 11 yuan RMB, cheaper than a 3-yuan cola in a domestic convenience store. What's more ridiculous is that two rows of shelves inside, I saw a brand new unopened 65-inch Sony 4K TV, priced at $799, while the same model I checked in China at that time was priced at RMB 5,999, equivalent to more than $800. Further inside is the digital product area, a latest iPad is priced at $99, which is $300 cheaper than the starting price on Apple's official website. I was still holding a converter plug brought from China, and I just wanted to buy a few bottles of mineral water, but my cart was full. When I checked out, I spent less than $200 in total. Holding a pile of goods that were half cheaper than in China, I only had one thought in my mind: Costco sells so cheap, how on earth does it make money?

这种困惑并不属于我一个人。几乎所有第一次逛Costco的人都会产生同样的疑问：1.5美元的热狗套餐，食材成本就超过1.2美元，单这一项就亏0.3美元；99美元的iPad，进货价都要95美元，几乎没赚头；甚至Costco引以为傲的自有品牌Kirkland的橄榄油，比沃尔玛的自有品牌还要便宜15%，品质却更好。如果你用传统零售的逻辑去看Costco，它简直是个“慈善机构”：东西卖得比谁都便宜，还不搞促销、不打广告，员工工资比同行高30%，还能连续5年蝉联《财富》杂志“最受喜爱的零售企业”榜首，2023财年净利润高达62.9亿美元。

这种反常识的现象，本质上是因为Costco完全跳出了传统零售的盈利逻辑。在拆解它的增长底层逻辑之前，我们有必要先厘清零售行业最基础的盈利规则，以及会员制零售和传统零售的本质区别。

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一、传统零售的“进销差价”盈利逻辑

如果你去过沃尔玛、家乐福、永辉这些传统超市，你会发现它们的定价逻辑非常清晰：同一种商品，永远比旁边的便利店便宜一点，但比批发市场贵一点。这种定价的背后，就是传统零售最核心的盈利模型——进销差价盈利模型。

我们可以用一个简单的公式来概括传统零售的利润来源： $$P = (P_s - P_c) \times Q - C_o$$ 其中$P_s$为商品售价，$P_c$为商品进货成本，$Q$为销量，$C_o$为运营成本（包括房租、人工、损耗、营销费用、水电等）。对于绝大多数传统零售商而言，$(P_s - P_c)/P_s$就是商品的毛利率，传统超市的综合毛利率通常在15%到25%之间，也就是说，你买一瓶2块钱的矿泉水，超市大概能赚0.3到0.5块钱。

> The profit logic of traditional retail can be summarized in one sentence: buy low and sell high, earning the spread between purchase and sale prices. For the vast majority of offline supermarkets and convenience stores, revenue = commodity price × sales volume, profit = (commodity price - commodity purchase cost) × sales volume - operating costs (rent, labor, loss, marketing expenses, etc.). > > We can use a simple formula to summarize the profit source of traditional retail: > $$P = (P_s - P_c) \times Q - C_o$$ > Where $P_s$ is the selling price of the product, $P_c$ is the purchase cost of the product, $Q$ is the sales volume, and $C_o$ is the operating cost (including rent, labor, loss, marketing expenses, utilities, etc.). For the vast majority of traditional retailers, $(P_s - P_c)/P_s$ is the gross profit margin of the product. The comprehensive gross profit margin of traditional supermarkets is usually between 15% and 25%, which means that for a bottle of 2-yuan mineral water you buy, the supermarket can earn about 0.3 to 0.5 yuan.

这种模式的核心是“以货养店”：超市需要通过卖货赚取的差价，覆盖所有的运营成本，剩下的才是净利润。为了提升销量，传统超市通常会采取两种策略：一是靠高频刚需商品（比如矿泉水、蔬菜、鸡蛋）低价引流，吸引顾客到店，再通过高毛利商品（比如零食、日化、进口商品）赚取利润；二是通过促销、打折、发优惠券等方式提升销量，摊薄运营成本。

我们可以用国内某头部连锁超市2022年的财报数据来验证这个逻辑：该超市全年营收为983亿元，综合毛利率为22.3%，其中生鲜品类毛利率仅为8.2%，主要用于引流；而零食饮料、日化用品的毛利率分别达到34.7%和28.9%，是主要的利润来源。全年净利润为15.6亿元，净利率仅为1.6%，也就是说，每卖100块钱的商品，只能赚1块6。

这种模式的痛点非常明显：第一，利润高度依赖销量，一旦客流下滑，或者电商冲击导致销量不及预期，利润就会大幅缩水；第二，商品差价空间有限，为了提升毛利，很多超市会抬高售价，或者降低商品品质，导致用户体验变差；第三，运营成本逐年上涨，房租、人工、损耗的成本越来越高，压缩了利润空间。过去10年，国内传统超市的净利率从平均3%左右下滑到了1.5%左右，很多中小超市甚至处于亏损状态。

> The pain points of this model are very obvious: First, profits are highly dependent on sales volume. Once passenger flow declines, or e-commerce impact leads to lower-than-expected sales, profits will shrink significantly; Second, the price difference space of products is limited. In order to increase gross profit, many supermarkets raise prices or reduce product quality, leading to worse user experience; Third, operating costs are rising year by year. The costs of rent, labor and loss are getting higher and higher, squeezing profit margins. Over the past 10 years, the net profit margin of domestic traditional supermarkets has dropped from an average of about 3% to about 1.5%, and many small and medium-sized supermarkets are even losing money.

二、Costco的“反常识”定价：到底赚不赚钱？

回到我们最开始的问题：Costco的东西卖得这么便宜，到底怎么赚钱？如果我们用传统零售的逻辑去算，Costco几乎每笔单子都在亏钱：1.5美元的热狗亏0.3美元，99美元的iPad亏4美元，799美元的索尼电视亏至少200美元。甚至有人算过，如果你在Costco买的所有商品都按进货价算，Costco的商品销售业务每年要亏几十亿美元。

但事实是，Costco不仅没有亏，还越做越大，2023财年营收突破2400亿美元，是全球第二大零售商，仅次于沃尔玛。它的赚钱逻辑，完全跳出了“靠卖货赚差价”的框架。

2.1 会员费：接近100%利润率的“现金牛”

Costco的核心盈利来源是会员费。你只有支付了会员费，成为Costco的付费会员，才能进入卖场购物，才能享受到低于市场价的商品和服务。目前Costco的会员体系分为两级：

• 普通金星会员（Gold Star Member）：年费60美元，享受所有卖场购物、线上购物的权益；
• 高级执行会员（Executive Member）：年费120美元，除了普通会员的所有权益，还能享受消费额2%的返现（每年最高返现1000美元）、 Travel折扣、保险优惠等专属服务。

> Costco's core profit source is membership fees. You can only enter the warehouse to shop and enjoy goods and services below the market price after paying the membership fee and becoming a paid member of Costco. At present, Costco's membership system is divided into two levels: > - Gold Star Member: annual fee of $60, enjoying all the rights and interests of in-warehouse shopping and online shopping; > - Executive Member: annual fee of $120, in addition to all the rights and interests of ordinary members, can also enjoy 2% cash back on consumption (up to $1,000 per year), travel discounts, insurance discounts and other exclusive services.

会员费的利润率有多高？几乎接近100%。因为Costco收取会员费几乎没有额外的成本：不需要为会员费做额外的营销（会员本身就是通过商品口碑传播的），不需要为会员提供额外的服务成本（会员权益本质上是商品折扣和返现，已经包含在运营成本里），所以会员费收入几乎都是纯利润。

我们再看Costco 2023财年的财报数据，这个逻辑就非常清晰了： | 业务板块 | 营收规模 | 净利润率 | 贡献净利润 | |----------|----------|----------|------------| | 商品销售 | 2266.7亿美元 | 约2.8% | 约63亿美元 | | 会员费收入 | 162.7亿美元 | 接近100% | 约160亿美元 | | 合计 | 2429.4亿美元 | 约2.6% | 62.9亿美元 |

> We can see this logic very clearly from Costco's fiscal year 2023 financial report: > | Business Segment | Revenue Scale | Net Profit Margin | Contributed Net Profit | > |------------------|---------------|-------------------|------------------------| > | Product Sales | $226.67 billion | About 2.8% | About $6.3 billion | > | Membership Fee Income | $16.27 billion | Close to 100% | About $16 billion | > | Total | $242.94 billion | About 2.6% | $6.29 billion |

也就是说，Costco 62.9亿美元的净利润中，超过70%来自会员费收入，剩下的不到30%才是靠卖商品赚的。甚至可以极端一点说：Costco的卖货业务本质上是给会员的“福利”，而不是盈利来源。它之所以把商品卖得这么便宜，不是为了赚差价，而是为了让会员觉得“我花的60美元（或120美元）会员费值回票价”，愿意每年续费，甚至推荐身边的朋友也办会员。

2.2 为什么会员愿意付费？价值感知的魔法

很多人会问：我为什么要花钱办会员？直接让有会员的朋友带我进去不就行了吗？事实上，Costco的会员体系设计，就是专门为了让会员觉得“值”，甚至“超值”。

首先，是极致的性价比。Costco的所有商品定价，都比市场价低10%到30%，同品质的自有品牌Kirkland商品，比沃尔玛、Target的自有品牌还要便宜15%左右。比如Kirkland的2%牛奶，1.89升装只卖3.5美元，而沃尔玛同容量的同品质牛奶要卖4.5美元；Kirkland的坚果礼盒，1.36公斤装卖12.99美元，比山姆会员店的同款还要便宜3美元。对于普通家庭来说，一年在Costco买日用品的钱，至少能省出几百美元，远远超过60美元的会员费。

其次，是惊喜的稀缺商品。Costco每个季度都会上架一批“寻宝商品”（Treasure Hunt），包括奢侈品包、最新款电子产品、限量版玩具、甚至房产和旅游产品，价格

> 这种困惑并不属于我一个人。几乎所有第一次逛Costco的人都会产生同样的疑问：1.5美元的热狗套餐，食材成本就超过1.2美元，单这一项就亏0.3美元；99美元的iPad，进货价都要95美元，几乎没赚头；甚至Costco引以为傲的自有品牌Kirkland的橄榄油，比沃尔玛的自有品牌还要便宜15%，品质却更好。如果你用传统零售的逻辑去看Costco，它简直是个“慈善机构”：东西卖得比谁都便宜，还不搞促销、不打广告，员工工资比同行高30%，还能连续5年蝉联《财富》杂志“最受喜爱的零售企业”榜首，